Gold’s Path to $10,000: Structural Forces Driving the Next Leg of the Bull Market
Rising global debt, geopolitical instability, and shifting financial power could push gold toward $10,000 in the years ahead
Only a few years ago, the idea of gold reaching $10,000 an ounce was widely dismissed as unrealistic. Today, however, some market strategists believe that scenario is becoming increasingly plausible as structural changes reshape the global financial system.
Chantelle Schieven, Head of Research at Capitalight Research, believes the precious metal’s powerful rally reflects deeper shifts taking place across the global economy. She said that if gold continues moving at its current pace, reaching $10,000 within the next several years would not be difficult.
“At the rate gold has been moving, if it continues on this trend, we would be there by 2029,” Schieven said, noting that the key question is whether such a move will require a dramatic new catalyst or whether existing structural pressures are already strong enough to drive prices higher.
According to Schieven, the momentum behind gold is no longer tied solely to traditional macroeconomic factors such as inflation or interest rates. Instead, she described a broader “tectonic shift” occurring within the global financial and political landscape.
Recent price volatility reflects that uncertainty. In February alone, gold experienced significant daily swings, highlighting the level of tension and instability currently shaping markets. Schieven pointed out that during that month, there were only four trading days when gold failed to move more than $50 in either direction, while prices moved more than $100 on 12 separate days.
Despite that volatility, she emphasized that long-term investors continue to benefit from the overall upward trajectory.
“The long-term momentum is still upward,” she said, adding that the recent price action has discouraged some speculative activity in futures markets because traders are finding it difficult to anticipate short-term moves.
Even as prices consolidate at elevated levels, Schieven said she sees limited downside risk for both gold and silver. In her view, a dramatic collapse in prices would require a major reversal in geopolitical conditions, something she does not expect.
“It would take a significant shift in geopolitical sentiment to end this current cycle, and I just don’t see that happening,” she said. “I also don’t see government debt shrinking anytime soon.”
One of the most significant turning points for gold, Schieven noted, came after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western governments responded with sweeping financial sanctions. That moment forced many countries and investors to reassess the safety of holding assets tied to the U.S. dollar or held within Western financial systems.
“That’s when central banks, governments, and wealthy individuals started saying they didn’t want to hold U.S. dollar assets that could potentially be frozen,” she said. “Gold doesn’t have that counterparty risk.”
Another major driver supporting gold’s long-term outlook is the unprecedented level of global debt. Governments, corporations, and households all face record borrowing levels, making it increasingly difficult for central banks to sustain aggressive interest rate increases.
“I still think central banks are caught in the middle,” Schieven said. “Raising rates too high really isn’t an option anymore because of the debt levels in the system.”
At the same time, the global economy is entering a period of heightened geopolitical fragmentation. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, tensions between China and Taiwan, and a broader trend toward deglobalization are contributing to a more uncertain international environment.
“I do think global mistrust among governments is going to continue for quite a long time,” Schieven said, explaining that many nations are increasingly shifting toward regional alliances and economic blocs.
Taken together, these forces are creating a powerful foundation for gold’s continued strength.
“It feels like there are storms everywhere,” she said. “And gold benefits from that uncertainty.”
As gold prices continue climbing, Schieven also believes silver could attract greater participation from everyday investors who find gold increasingly expensive.
“The average consumer can’t afford an ounce of gold anymore,” she said, noting that silver often becomes the entry point for individuals seeking exposure to precious metals.
While the exact timing of gold’s next major move remains uncertain, Schieven believes the structural trends now shaping the global economy strongly favor precious metals over the long term.
